Methodology for evaluating the probability of downtime of complex technical systems with considering indicators of the technical condition control system

Presents an approach to the analysis of the processes of functioning and maintenance of complex technical systems (CTS) using AnyLogic simulation tools to determine the probability that the CTS will be ready to perform the task at a given point in time, taking into account the characteristics of the technical condition control. The analysis is based on the simulation of Markov processes and the subsequent obtaining of parameters and subsequent data processing by methods of mathematical statistics. An analytical and simulation model for estimating the CTS downtime probability index is proposed and simulation modeling is carried out on the basis of the AnyLogic software environment.

Authors: E. A. Kopeyka, A. L. Kopeyka, A. N. Lebedev

Direction: Informatics, Computer Technologies And Control

Keywords: model, technical condition control, complex technical systems, simulation modeling, AnyLogic, normal distribution law, Markov process

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